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UniCredit will launch its takeover offer for Banco BPM on April 28, following approvals from the European Central Bank and Italy’s market watchdog. The offer, which values Banco BPM at 10.1 billion euros, will run until June 23, despite Banco BPM's objections and ongoing plans to acquire Anima. UniCredit's CEO has warned that the offer could be rescinded if Banco BPM increases its stake in Anima.
Uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policy under Trump is dampening business sentiment and could significantly impact consumer behavior. If consumers reduce spending due to fears of unemployment and rising prices, the foundation of U.S. growth may weaken, leading to a potential economic downturn. Confidence, once lost, can take a long time to recover, posing a high price for the economy.
UniCredit's unsolicited public exchange offer for Banco BPM shares will run from April 28 to June 23, aiming to exchange up to 1.51 billion shares at a valuation exceeding €10 billion. The proposal has faced resistance from BPM's Board, which argues it undervalues the bank's profitability and growth potential, particularly after recent strong results. The outcome hinges on the response from Banco BPM's shareholders, notably Crédit Agricole.
Credit Agricole has increased its stake in Banco BPM, complicating UniCredit's upcoming €14 billion tender offer set for April 28. UniCredit's bid, cleared by Consob, will run until June 23, while Credit Agricole aims to maintain its commercial interests in Italy amid ongoing M&A activity in the banking sector. UniCredit's CEO, Andrea Orcel, has invited BPM investors to discussions, emphasizing the need for equal treatment of shareholders.
Commerzbank shares surged by 7.3% to €22.49, leading the Dax, while Deutsche Bank rose by 2.3% to €22.31. Despite a recent decline of 11% over four trading days, Commerzbank has seen a 43% annual gain, supported by the 50-day trend line at around €20.80.
Copper prices have risen approximately 25% since the start of the year, despite recent declines attributed to increased market risk aversion and a necessary correction after prior surges. Supportive factors include improved sentiment in China's industrial sectors and disappointing Chilean production, which fell below 400,000 tons in February. Ongoing political protests in Peru and tight concentrate supply further complicate the market landscape.
European gas prices have stabilized around EUR40 per MWh, with limited potential for further decline due to improved supply conditions and increased LNG imports, which reached a March high not seen since 2017. Despite current storage levels being below the five-year average, the higher prices compared to last year are encouraging continued LNG sales to Europe.
Brent oil prices have reached $75 per barrel for the first time since February, following muted market reactions to Trump's tariff threats on Russian oil. However, with OPEC+ countries beginning to reverse production cuts, supply is set to increase, potentially leading to a decline in prices amid renewed demand concerns.
Gold prices have surged past $3,100 per troy ounce, marking a 19% increase in the last quarter, the highest since 1986. This rise is driven by uncertainty over US tariff threats and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite inflation risks that may hinder such cuts. However, analysts warn of a potential setback for gold prices amid these economic concerns.
Karim Menn has departed from Commerzbank's CVC unit after nearly five years to take on a principal role at Wunderland Capital, a newly established German B2B technology VC firm. During his tenure at Neosfer, he advanced from manager to senior manager, overseeing investments in fintech, B2B SaaS, and climate tech startups, including significant funding rounds for Beatvest and Terra One. Prior to Neosfer, Menn worked at BearingPoint, focusing on digital strategy and venture consulting.
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